I’ve been asked this question daily since the summer of ’24. Being in the business for 24 years you see patterns. You’re able to predict downturns and upswings. You follow the trends and can forecast fairly accurately. Yeah, those were the days.

My first role started in 2002 when the Dot com bubble burst. IT managers were driving airport shuttles and layoffs were rampant. This was not what I was promised coming out of college where I pursued IT because “that’s where the money is.” My cold calls were readily welcomed, not because they were eager to hire from me, but because they were panicking and wanted my help finding them a new job.

Then in 2008 the market crashed and it was more of the same.

During the pandemic unemployment was at a record high of 14%, but not for IT. No sir. We were booming. Some of our clients couldn’t find people fast enough and were forced into a remote environment, where our national reach was a gift, saving our clients money by hiring in more “salary friendly” locations.

In each of those instances there were market indicators which helped us identify when the shift would occur. A new president gets elected and brings positive change. Interest rates drop. Companies invest in new technologies. Etc.

Going back to the summer of ’24, I relied on historic data to predict the upcoming shifts (and this is a good time to remind you past performance is not indicative of future results).

“When interest rates drop, we’ll see more investment.”

“Whichever candidate takes over the White House, you’ll see some positive policy changes.”  (No, this is not your opportunity to go on a political rant)

“Once companies right-size for Q4 reports, you’ll see an upswing in hiring at the end of Q1.”

Wrong.

The 2024 Q4 layoffs have continued into ’26. This week alone, Coinbase, ZoomInfo, and now GM announce hundreds of layoffs. Is it AI? Is it the over-hiring from a few years ago? Is it consumer confidence and belt tightening? All are factors.

It’s not all gloom and doom. We are seeing a positive trend in some industries. More clients are asking for help. More jobs are being posted. Leaders who have been out of work for a year are getting more “activity” and starting to land jobs.

Ultimately, I’ve stopped predicting or guessing when the market will shift, but we know it’s coming. We just don’t know when or what that will look like.

In the meantime, my advice is to set your expectations accordingly. You may be taking a 20% hit on your salary. Pick up fractional or consulting work if you can. Let go of the “must be remote” mentality. Ask recruiters what the market is paying for your role these days. Beware of scams. Validate job posts, don’t fall for resume rewriting for a fee, and don’t front any money for any job situation.

Your next job doesn’t have to be your forever job. Grab what you can and keep an eye on market.

#hiring #jobmarket #careeradvice #recruiting

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